Saturday, December 27, 2008

Response to Mumbai: India's Options

What are India's options in the wake of Mumbai attacks? Alsol, are we confronted with a discontinuity here-- are attacks of this nature going to remain isolated and rare, or do you believe that a war has been declared on India, and such attacks will now become rampant?

Researching on the web, and within blogs, this is what I find for India's Options:

1. Do nothing (supporting assumption: Mumbai was a freak incident, and will not be repeated again)

2. Accelerate diplomacy with Pakistan (Assumption: They are willing, capable  and ready to collaborate, and the all that is needed to facilitate such collaboration is greater exchange of information and views, and that further attacks will be prevented by this)

3. Work toward a diplomatic isolation of Pakistan (Assumption: Interests inimical to India can be weakened, and those likely to cooperate strengthened by such an isolation, and that further attacks will be prevented by this)

4. Work toward economic-sanctions against Pakistan (Assumption: The state is constitutionally opposed to India's weal, and the stress of economic isolation will drive reevaluation of institutional and national agenda, and that further attacks will be prevented by this)

5. Carry out surgical operations against terrorists on Pakistani soil (Assumption: The terrorists are well-identified, and isolated within Pakistani territory, that these attacka will deal a blow to their ability to reconstitute, and Pakistani government will not start supporting terrorists. Finally, that this will not lead to a disproportionate response from Pakistan, nor bring down civilian government, and that further Mumbai-like attacks will be prevented by this)

6. Carry out a full fledged invasion of Pakistan (Assumption: India will be able to permanently cripple Pakistan's ability to threaten India, and prevent Iraq-like instability in its aftermath. That a nuclear war would not ensue, nor will China opportnitstically make advances on Arunachal, etc. All this to prevent Mumbai-like attacks)

In designing such options, and I admit myriad can be made up, we balance the fear that the response will be ineffective (numbers 1 and 2, for example) with the fear that they will be counterproductive (numbers 5 and six possibly)

I think, given current threat level and India's limitations, options 3. and 4. cited above (diplomatic isolation OR economic sanctions) are the kinds we will want to choose from amongst.

Combining them, we can either
A. Go for maximum wattage, and seek economic sanctions against Pakistan, and demand clear, specific, time-based actions against them
OR
B. Build a case for economics sanctions, by allowing diplomatic isolation to fail

My thinking in all this is that India is faced with a secular discontinuity here-- that Mumbai attacks we NOT a one-off incident, but the begining of what will be a sustained campaign against India.

Do you agree? What options will you construct for India?
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