Saturday, November 29, 2008

Re. the attacks on Bombay-- the innocence and idealism of the first fifty years is probably lost for ever. Have things truly changed? Can we expect an offensive-and-resolute India to arise out of all this chaos, in place of the defensive-and-resilient one.

I am writing this because my first response was to blame Pakistan, and wish the Armageddon on them. Then I wondered who benefits from this? I can now see other, bigger powers standing to benefit more from us fighting-- like Alexander did when Ambhi betrayed Porous. The ISI, a power within Pakistan-- nay, THE power within that floundering nuclear keg-- is one clear suspect. As bombs went off in Bombay, Pakistan's foreign minister was in India, advancing the agenda of peace. This peace threatens ISI.


My thesis is-- this terror grows in the cesspools of slums and madarsas and across the border; but the funding and guns come from further afar. We can't not respond to the local threat-- it needs a strong tactical response. But we also need a strategic response for the puppeteers. An important element of that response is more trust in our neighborhood.


One big enemy here, in my opinion, is the initial instinct to blame all "Pakistanis and Muslims." A sensibility that is offended at even the suggestion that they may be as much a patient as the source of contagion. As we rise-- as Indians-- to a greater mercantile stature, we threaten very powerful potentates. We can overcome the distrust with our neighbors, and rise, or we can allow unreasoned hatred to balkanize us back to where the British found us.


The China-Taiwan rivalry, the insurrections in Russia's backyard, the bloody Iran-Iraq wars, the festering Arab-Israel conflict, revolutions and political assassinations in Latin America-- all these are admittedly slaked in part by external forces. Incidentally, the same interests that would not miss the silver lining in a besieged India. And, minus the intervention of which forces, there will be fewer guns, gorillas, and blood in all these conflicts.


One example of a good response would be that the heads of ISI are covertly "punished," or the leadership of SIMI  publicly disciplined by the law. A bad response will be to allow a mob to scorch a muhalla. The first reduces our enemies, the second, which we of late seem inclined to, increases them. All my opinion, based not on reading, but on judgement, and so very likely flawed.


In this, I think, it is also important who actually hurls the "vajra"-- if the government of India has a monopoly on violence, and uses it wisely, our nation is strengthened. If private "patriots" start plotting and delivering retribution, then we are left with a weaker government.


Much as I think a divided, weakened Pakistan threatens us the less, I also realize that a decent, healthy neighborhood, like the Nordics have forged despite deep historical distrust, liberates us the more. It is the only long-term solution to our voes. India can't soar with a laden Pakistan sapping our vitality.


I expect that the guns will be trained on the usual suspects. As they should, specially if we have reasonable proof. Certainly not all of them are innocent, and this tragedy even gives us some permission for some collateral damage. However, if we can nuance our wrath, we can win the longer game. Otherwise, the global geopolitical stratagem seems set to overtake the subcontinent again.

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Thursday, November 27, 2008