Broad Prognostications

I am prognosticating an eventual division of Pakistan.

However, thinking through the various scenarios, and trying to project the logical outcome to two years out, I think it seems inevitable that Pakistan will face partition between Punjab and another enitity(ies).

While that end result (partition) I feel reasonably sure about, I am strangely unsure as to what road leads to that end. I can see upswing in militancy, military crack-down on the populace, internal strife within the army, and a possible exodus to India. Pakistan has three puppeteers-- US, China, and Saudi. It has two nemses-- India and Iran/Afganistan. As US loses voice within Pakistan (as it will when a military crackdown ensues), China and Saudi (less supportive of democracy) will support the brutalities. The US will sway toward India. India, to prevent the exodus, and under reflexsive simulatneous pressure from China, will go into an escalated defensive posture. If the US messes with Iran, it gains Russia's wrath, whereas in supporting India against Sino-Pak, I think these two powers can coordinate.

As the region heats up, dismembering Pakistan will seem as the best option to the super-powers. Sindhu-desh will welcome the option, long tired of Punjabi bullying, and capable of supporting themselves through trade. Punjabi-dominated military will raise heckles, and the nuclear assets will need to be quaranteened.

India may be made to pay a sacrifice to appease Pakistan, and help in Nuclear quaranteen. Possibly, China will claim parts of Kashmir or Nor-east openly.

Pakistan divided, India will accept such a sacrifice. Military alliance between Punjab-China will sought to be balanced by one between Sindh and India. Sphere: Related Content